September 25, 2021

OmahaCharts

Technical Analysis of Financial Markets

The Bitcoin Price Target Fallacy

Santa Brought You A Rally in... Bitcoin?

Some time has passed since my last post about Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency space. In case you hadn’t noticed, digital currencies have gone on a bit of a run…

Bitcoin Price Target

I am not an expert in this space and don’t follow the ins and outs of the blockchain or any of the alt coins. There are some incredibly smart individuals who I follow which lead to my investment in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin 5 years ago. I have recommended that friends and family have a small allocation to Bitcoin (outside of my RIA duties) as a hedge against both inflation as well as a sort of synthetic call option on the animal spirits of investors. Like Tesla, those who believe in Bitcoin and all it stands for are not selling, and neither am I.

In the world of investing, especially in the cryptocurrency market, there is a strong positive correlation in the rising price of Bitcoin and other alt currencies and the negative commentary from those who don’t own any.

“It’s not a store of value.”

“Get out before it crashes, it’s worthless.”

“The governments are going to regulate it and then it will crash.”

And on and on and on.

Meanwhile you have JP Morgan out this week with a long term price target of $146,000 per coin.

So… Bitcoin is worth somewhere between $00.00 and $146,000. How helpful.

We can do better than that. I’ll give you the roadmap I follow and always have since I purchased my very first coin years ago. It helps to cut through the noise and tune out the chatter from both the cryptomaniacs as well as the naysayers.

Bitcoin Stock to Flow Model Live

Read it, understand it, invest in it if you believe in it. Always remember that a coin, a stock, a trading card, or any other good is worth what someone will pay for it. Don’t assume you have missed the boat with price being at 35k today. It could be worth 50k 3 months from now. Don’t assume it’s a steal at 35k. It could be worth 20k 3 months from now. That is investing.

Take care.

Trent J. Smalley, CMT